Euro tested last week the support at 1,3670. Now as USD index face also a resistance it could rebound and need to break the strong monthly resistance at 1,3960 to pursue higher.
If it breaks 1,3670, could be very negative.
Need to break above 1,3800 to invalidate the bearish scenario. If it succed it could reach the 1,3870/80 resistance zone. if not it would plunge toward 1.3670 (Very bearish below).
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Following the central banks meetings Euro strongly rejected another time the big monthly resistance at 1,3950 and now go towards 1,3670.
Usd Index reached and rebounded on a big support at 79.
Suite aux différentes réunions des banques centrales l' euro a rejeté une nouvelle fois la résitance majeure des 1,3950 de façon assez violente. Comme je l'indiquais l'USD Index était sur un support majeur.
Donc la baisse risque de se poursuivre jusqu'au support hebdo à 1,3670 tant qu'on reste sous 1,3880.
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weekly graph
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For now the monthly bearish trendline repelled euro . But on a daily basis the cloud and the kijun line act as good support. So nothing to do until euro breaks one or other.
Euro fluctuate between monthly resistance at 1,3900 (recent high and descending trendline) and the bottom of the daily cloud.
Short term the kijun line acts as support, 1,3790. So above a new test of the monthly resistance is likely. If not watch 1,3720 (cloud bottom) and 1,3670 support former low).
Very precise rebound on the daily cloud, so as long as the euro currency is above the cloud, it can test the former top at 1,3967.
But remind that this is a monthly resistance so very strong, cluster of a descending trendline (now around 1,3930)and top of the monthly Ichimoku cloud (1,3950).
I prefer to stay neutral as long as the daily cloud (1,3695) act as support and wait to see if this time, euro ll succeed to break above.
Euro managed to close just above the daily cloud which act as support. While it stays above, it has a chance to bounce back to the kijun line at 1.3820. If not it ll test the weekly kijun line at 1.3630.
Below there is room to lower further to the weekly ascending cloud at 1,3290.
Daily graph:
Weekly Graph:
Euro fell after Dragui comments and reached the daily cloud at 1.3690, first support. So now it could bounce back but it has to break 1,3835 kijun line to go higher. If it breaks next support is the lower cloud at 1,3650.
I remind that the monthly view is negative for euro so that there is a chance to see euro lower this month.
Today US Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployement figures to be release at 14:30 (paris time)
Euro fell to 1,3753 and rejected resistance 1,3835 (kijun line). It had to cross over to pursue and test another time the monthly cloud above 1,3900. For now it stuck just above the daily cloud wich is support today at 1,3690 and 1,3650.
Watch ECB decision on rates today and Dragui speech for next big move.
Resistance 1,3835 1,3950
Support 1,3690 1,3650
